Dr. Vaupel, Director of Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research and a Professor at Duke University, believes that life expectancies will continue to increase at the steady pace of 2.5 years per decade.
He was recently interviewed by Munich Re, an international life insurer. The information is not on-line, but you can obtain a copy at jbuerger@munichre.com ; ask for 302-05132 Genetics and Life Insurance.
A few of my favorite tidbits include
· Genetics determine only 25% of the variation in how long a person lives. [My note: this includes the rare but favorable pro-longevity genes, the life-shortening genes for inherited cancers, and all of the genes that control lipids, blood pressure, clotting, tumor growth, and telomere length.] Knowing how long your father or mother lived will only explain about 2% or 3% of how long you are going to live. If anything, the most lethal genetics, the one that increases the annual chance of dying the most is –the X chromosome.
· For the past 160 years, life expectancy has increased 2.5 years per decade. Dr. Vaupel writes that if you were born when your parents were 30, you can expect to live 7.5 years longer than they did and 15 years longer than your grandparents did. [Dr. Vaupel sees this 2.5-year gain per decade continuing, while other longevity demographers do not.]
· In the first 100 years of this 160 year block of time, life expectancy improved in the very young and young. Since 1970, the mortality among the elderly (those over 90) has declined substantially. [I will be posting a powser point talk on this topic soon.]
· Most of the increase in life expectancy is because of improvements in our behavior, environment, and public health.
- What can people do to help themselves live longer? Dr. Vaupel's surprising answer was “not much.” Most of the reasons for living longer have to do with public health, cleaner water, cleaner air, safer cars and highways, less cigarette smoking, better control of cardiac risk factors. Personally, the best actions are daily exercise, eating five fruits and vegetables, do not smoke, and do not drive drunk, and put on a coat if it is cold outside. The best rules for living a long are then things that your mother told you when you were five years old.
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